Distribution and dynamics of risk factors associated with highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1.

Within China's Poyang Lake region, close interactions between wild migratory birds and domestic poultry are common and provide an opportunity for the transmission and subsequent outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus. We overlaid a series of ecological factors associated with HPAI to map the risk of HPAI in relation to natural and anthropogenic variables, and we identified two hotspots for potential HPAI outbreaks in the Poyang Lake region as well as three corridors connecting the two hotspot areas. In hotspot I, there is potential for migratory birds to bring new avian influenza (AI) strains that can reassort with existing strains to form new AI viruses. Hotspot II features high-density poultry production where outbreaks of endemic AI viruses are likely. The three communication corridors that link the two hotspots further promote HPAI H5N1 transmission and outbreaks and lead to the persistence of AI viruses in the Poyang Lake region. We speculate that the region's unevenly distributed poultry supply-and-demand system might be a key factor inducing HPAI H5N1 transmission and outbreaks in the Poyang Lake region.